Low demand and excessive manufacturing create a discount for SSD drives

Analysts had anticipated 2020 to be a yr of rising NAND flash costs after a provide glut in 2019. The reasoning, backed by years of repeating patterns, was that after an oversupply, distributors like SK Hynix and Micron would gradual manufacturing to drive costs up.

Cue COVID-19 and the following chaos.

TrendForce, a market analysis agency that follows the reminiscence market, stated there was a normal decline in contract costs beginning final quarter because of oversupply. This oversupply state of affairs is attributed to the buildup of stock attributable to the financial fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Demand for PC and server SSDs has weakened because of decelerating demand in favor of cloud and distant entry providers. To keep away from a possible stock surge, main suppliers are being pressured to ramp up their provides to the wafer market, resulting in contract costs (that are fastened and negotiated) closing in on spot costs (that are changable from day after day) within the subsequent few months. What which means is provide might be decreased to extend costs, however it should take some time to work its method by means of {the marketplace}.

TrendForce stated SSDs have skilled a comparatively smaller drop because of weak spot in some areas, like servers and smartphones, however there’s power in different areas. Particularly, Sony and Microsoft are consuming giant quantities of NAND as they put together their respective PlayStation 5 and Xbox Sequence X consoles for launch later this yr.

“TrendForce believes that, regardless of the normal peak season for electronics gross sales and the discharge of Apple’s new iPhones in 3Q20, the quarterly decline in NAND Flash ASP will doubtless attain 10%, because of the consumer finish’s extra stock below the impression of the pandemic. Moreover, as suppliers proceed making enhancements within the yield price of 128L NAND Flash, the oversupply within the NAND Flash market will intensify in 4Q20, additional exacerbating the decline in NAND Flash ASP,” the corporate stated in a report.

What which means is if you happen to as an enterprise IT purchaser are SSD procuring, you may need to maintain off for higher costs as they proceed to drop by means of this quarter. Since TrendForce tasks the oversupply to persist into this quarter, this might imply costs shift down within the coming weeks and months.

Intel to promote NAND flash reminiscence enterprise

You have in all probability heard the information that Intel has introduced it should promote its NAND flash reminiscence enterprise and the accompanying foundry that makes the NAND to South Korea’s SK Hynix for $9 billion. The deal is only for the NAND flash; Intel will retain its Optane enterprise.

So what does this imply for you as a purchaser of NAND flash merchandise, whether or not it is a smartphone or all-flash storage array? Completely nothing. There is not any fallout or potential becoming a member of of skills just like the Nvidia/Arm deal – which is now being opposed by the Chinese language authorities and Huawei, little question payback for the U.S. authorities coming down so onerous on Huawei.

The one good within the deal is Intel is getting a $9 billion money infusion and jettisoning a enterprise unit that has struggled, which can maybe permit Intel to focus much more on Optane, which is its actual golden goose.

Remember, CEO Bob Swan was beforehand the CFO. If anybody goes to be inclined to dump a struggling enterprise unit, it is him. Nevertheless it will not make a lot distinction within the NAND flash market.